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The Queenstown Lakes district is tipped to have the highest growth rate in the country by 2031.

Statistics New Zealand yesterday issued population projections for the country.

Projections for the 25 years from 2006 to 2031 predict national population growth will generally slow down because of the narrowing gap between births and deaths.

But Queenstown looks set to flip that trend by increasing its population by 2.2 per cent per year, boosting the resort's 2006 population of 24,100 to 41,700 in 2031.

The Subnational Population Projections report states that all territorial authority areas will have more older people in the future, and the Queenstown Lakes district's population of people aged over 65 will triple by 2031.

The Queenstown Lakes District Council has done an independent analysis of Queenstown's population growth, which takes in the number of visitors to the resort.

Queenstown Mayor Clive Geddes said yesterday current numbers would double by 2026.

"Queenstown's average day population of around 35,000 will double to around 70,000, and our peak population, which is district-wide, will rise from 70,000 to around 140,000 by 2026," he said.

Mr Geddes said the council figures were based on an unconstrained growth model but accepted there could be popula-tion constraints between now and 2026.

"The QLDC is not prepared to guess what those constraints could be.

"We don't want people to run out of water in 2020 because in 2010 the council had a guess at what the population might be, and the 2001 and 2006 censuses have reinforced our figures."

Mr Geddes said Queenstown had a very disjointed demographic profile, with the highest percentage of people between the ages of 17 and 35 countrywide, and one of the lowest percentages of people aged 55 and over.

Mr Geddes said preparation for growth was something the council had been prepared for for a long time.

"All of the council's infrastructure works for the next 10 years and the 10 years after that are driven by those population projections, and every three to four years we review our progress."

Mr Geddes said if population growth slowed, so did the rate at which the council put in infrastructure services but, if it grew, the council would adjust to put in amenities earlier.

By GRANT BRYANT - The Southland Times

25-02-2010

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